Explaining McCain’s Success Among Evangelicals

This complete story appears at Huffington Post.

As South Carolina Republicans headed to the polls Saturday, an all too-simple storyline emerged in the press. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister who won the Iowa caucus, would have the evangelical vote, while Arizona Senator John McCain, a Vietnam War hero, would win defense conservatives. “It’s the Christian soldiers vs. the retired soldiers,” one observer summed up for the Wall Street Journal.

But McCain captured a quarter of evangelical voters when he won yesterday’s GOP primary according to exit polls, while Huckabee won only 40%. A recent conversation with Rich Cizik, who heads up governmental affairs for the 30-million member National Association of Evangelicals, reveals that Christian voters are a more complicated voting block than the media seems to realize. Cizik speaks unhappily about the GOP under the Bush administration. “This has been an unholy alliance in which the evangelicals have given everything and gotten nothing in return.” But, he says, “It’s quite obvious that the next Republican in the White House will likely be someone with a very different attitude… John McCain or Mike Huckabee, at least in the case of those two, would be much more sympathetic.” (Cizik was speaking for himself, not for the NAE, which does not endorse candidates.)

The rest of this post can be read at Huffington Post.

Republicans Buy Global Warming

Ok, that might be an overstatement. But at least GOP voters aren’t punishing candidates who have supported legislation to control greenhouse gas emissions. Interestingly, the only two Republican presidential candidates who have endorsed cap-and-trade legislation to control global warming—Mike Huckabee and John McCain—are the victors in the two most important early nominating contests, Iowa and New Hampshire.

It’s unlikely that they won much support for these positions—the environment is not high on the list of conservative voters. But they were not penalized for their positions, which suggests building consensus for global warming legislation will be easier than ever before no matter who wins the White House in November.

Cry Cry Cry

Spinning is sometimes surreal. As Hillary Clinton eeked out a narrow victory over Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary last night, her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, told a TV reporter that her watery-eyed profession of love-of-country explained her revived campaign.

A moment of supposed emotional authenticity had officially become a talking point. It became part of Clinton’s arsenal in the fight for voters waged in a media battleground.

Iowa Votes for Politics of Authenticity

Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama have a lot in common. Of course, the winners of the respective Republican and Democratic Iowa caucuses Thursday couldn’t be more different on matters of policy. Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, is a hard-core social conservative who is supportive of the war effort and has embraced a hard line on illegal immigration. Illinois Senator Barack Obama is pro-choice, an outspoken critic of the war in Iraq, and supports a federal role in providing health insurance anathema to a conservative like Huckabee.

Yet the both represent the same brand of politics—the politics of authenticity. To their supporters, each is viewed as speaking from the heart about the things they truly care about. Though both talk of seeking common ground and overcoming division, both speak about upholding values and causes with a high-minded idealism seldom heard in today’s debate. They promise a vision that will win converts rather than strategies that will thwart opponents.

Iowa Predictions

Since I have a blog, here’s the obligatory prognostication of what’s going to happen after the Iowegians make their way to various churches, schools, and living rooms to caucus for the presidential nominees:

Democratic:

1. John Edwards, winning by at least 3 points above #2.
2. Barack Obama, winning by less than 2 points above #3.
3. Hillary Clinton, winning by at least 10 points above #4, if anyone gets enough votes to be fourth.
4. Bill Richardson.

Republican:

1. Mitt Romney, winning by at least 4 points above #2.
2. Mike Huckabee, winning by at least 7 points ahead of #3.
3. Essentially a three way tie between McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.
4. Ron Paul will bring up the rear.

Here’s the reasoning:

Huckabee Campaign Divided on Environment and Evangelicalism

This complete story appears at Huffington Post.

The only policy issue Mike Huckabee singles out on a page devoted to “Faith and Politics” isn’t abortion or marriage. “My faith doesn’t influence my decisions, it drives them,” writes the GOP presidential hopeful. “For example, when it comes to the environment, I believe in being a good steward of the earth.”

But the prominence given to the environment on this webpage is unmatched in Iowa. He does not even mention the issue in his stump speech, and he is seldom asked about it by the largely conservative audiences that turn out to appraise whether he deserves their support in the state’s January 3rd caucus. This is undoubtedly a prudent judgment of the concerns of the voters he is courting. He is unlikely to win points for having bucked conservative orthodoxy with his endorsement of a cap-and-trade system to control carbon emissions. But he also likely avoids talking about the environment because there is deep division within the evangelical community that has fueled his rise to the front of the GOP pack.

“I’ve heard reporters talking about global warming as an evangelical issue, and that’s just poppycock,” said Iowa Christian Alliance President Steve Scheffler, reached by phone earlier this month.

Click here to read the rest of this story at Huffington Post.

Will the Real Mike Huckabee Please Stand Up?

This complete story appears at the Huffington Post.

Des Moines – Mike Huckabee began a bold denunciation of gay marriage in Ames, Iowa, Wednesday night, but quickly checked himself with stuttering caveats:

“We have to also realize that the strength of our nation really does come down to our families, and that’s why, without apology — I’m, I’m not mad at anybody and I’m, I’m not against anybody — but folks, we have an obligation to preserve the integrity of, of what family, what marriage means. Again, not to, not to try to put others down, but to lift that institution up.”

The former Arkansas governor returned to Iowa this week as the new frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination. He has been selling himself as a kinder-and-gentler conservative, one who’s “just not angry about it.” How different is the aw-shucks Huck who spoke in this Iowa college town than the culture warrior who wrote in 1998: “It is now difficult to keep track of the vast array of publicly endorsed and institutionally supported aberrations — from homosexuality and pedophilia to sadomasochism and necrophilia.” This quote turned up by David Korn at Mother Jones is one of the many Ghosts of an Angry Huckabee Past that haunted him the week before Christmas.

One of Huckabee’s main challenges during the final stretch to the Iowa caucuses is preserving his sunny image under intensifying scrutiny.

Click here to read the rest of this story at Huffington Post.