Iowa Predictions

Since I have a blog, here’s the obligatory prognostication of what’s going to happen after the Iowegians make their way to various churches, schools, and living rooms to caucus for the presidential nominees:

Democratic:

1. John Edwards, winning by at least 3 points above #2.
2. Barack Obama, winning by less than 2 points above #3.
3. Hillary Clinton, winning by at least 10 points above #4, if anyone gets enough votes to be fourth.
4. Bill Richardson.

Republican:

1. Mitt Romney, winning by at least 4 points above #2.
2. Mike Huckabee, winning by at least 7 points ahead of #3.
3. Essentially a three way tie between McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani.
4. Ron Paul will bring up the rear.

Here’s the reasoning: